TIME: Almanac 1993/TIME Almanac 1993.iso/time/100890/1008011.000

Text File | 1992-08-28 | 7.5 KB | 171 lines

                ?P                                                            THE GULF, Page 34

Fear and Loathing in Israel


Fingered for an Iraqi first strike, Jerusalem steps up its
defenses and hopes for a war that would crush Saddam

By JON D. HULL/JERUSALEM -- Reported by Ron Ben-Yishai/Tel
Aviv, with other bureaus


    Israeli military officials fear only one thing more than a
surprise Iraqi attack: a diplomatic solution to the Persian Gulf
crisis that would leave Saddam Hussein and his war machine
intact.

    Sound coldhearted? Not as Israeli analysts see it. If Iraq
dares to attack Israel now, Saddam Hussein will face the
devastating wrath of both Israel and the U.S.-led forces massed
in the region. But if Saddam survives and U.S. troops eventually
depart, the analysts are convinced, Israel will one day have to
fight alone against Baghdad. By then, Saddam may also have
nuclear weapons at his disposal.

    Saddam's threat last week to fire the first shot -- and to
target Israel in the bargain -- convinced Jerusalem that a
showdown may come in a matter of weeks. In fact, an Israeli
intelligence evaluation concluded that war was "highly probable"
and warned that Israel would probably be dragged into the
conflict.

    After Saddam's threat, the Israeli military command --
which is all too aware that Iraqi missiles are only five minutes
from Tel Aviv -- quickly put its forces on an even higher state
of alert. Said Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir: "We are preparing
to forestall the threat, prevent it and if, heaven forbid, he
does in fact attack, to retaliate."

    Considering that Israel's own military doctrine stresses
swift pre-emptive action against any imminent threat, it would
seem that Israeli warplanes are long overdue in the skies above
Baghdad. But Israel remains under intense pressure from
Washington to avoid any action that might offend the Arab
alliance deployed against Iraq.

    Israeli officials have followed Washington's directives
with unprecedented restraint, knowing that any military move
against Baghdad on their part would turn Saddam into a hero of
the Arab masses, paint Israel as the aggressor and perhaps force
several Arab allies now in the U.S. camp over to Saddam's side,
or at least to the sidelines. Following a series of war games
held by the general staff in an underground command bunker in
the central part of the country, Israel's brass concluded that
for now, the consequences of an Iraqi attack on Israel would be
less severe than the political and military fallout from a first
strike on Iraq.

    That assessment could quickly change. But in the meantime,
Israel remains in a rather unnerving defensive posture. Air
defenses along the Jordan Valley have been strengthened with
additional batteries of Hawk surface-to-air missiles, and an
increased number of Israeli interceptors are kept aloft 24 hours
a day.

    Israel is also relying on its ability to detect, with the
help of U.S. satellites, any Iraqi preparations for a missile
launch. Once Baghdad begins placing its missiles on launchers,
Israel and the U.S. expect to have five or six hours to
coordinate a response before the missiles can be fired. To keep
Israel out of the fray, Washington may volunteer to take out the
missiles, but Shamir will require some convincing. Says Defense
Minister Moshe Arens: "Nobody will do the job for us. We can do
it, and we should do it on our own."

    Granted, but Israel is gambling nonetheless. Although Arens
has boasted that "we are in a position to knock out of the air
any Iraqi plane that may be coming our way," his country's air
defenses are largely helpless against Iraqi missiles. And even
though some Israeli officials believe Saddam may indeed have
managed to equip those missiles with primitive chemical warheads
-- contrary to Arens' assertion a few weeks ago -- the
government still refuses to issue gas masks to the civilian
population.

    Israeli intelligence concedes that it cannot be absolutely
certain of detecting Iraqi missile preparations in advance. As a
precaution, civil defense officials are bracing for a worst-case
scenario in which 20 to 30 missiles hit the populated coastal
region, causing thousands of casualties, before Israel can
cripple Saddam's war machine.

    Doomsayers prophesy that Jerusalem would respond to Iraqi
gas with an A-bomb. In fact, even in this situation, an Israeli
nuclear retaliation would be extremely unlikely. Those weapons
are reserved for the dark hours when the nation's existence is
at stake; despite Saddam's apocalyptic rhetoric, Iraq is
militarily incapable of destroying Israel. Moreover, Israeli
generals are confident that their conventional weapons can both
paralyze Baghdad and stop dead any Iraq troop movements into
Jordan.

    Ironically, Israel's options have been limited by the U.S.
presence in the gulf. For example, one Israeli plan -- drawn up
before the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait -- is believed to call for
waves of warplanes to knock out several dozen Iraqi military
targets, including chemical, biological and nuclear
installations. Now, say Israeli officials with some remorse,
that plan may no longer be viable because it would interfere
with U.S. strategy. Instead, Israel is preparing a series of
more limited responses gauged according to the severity of any
Iraqi strike against Israel, and officials admit that any move
by Jerusalem short of urgent defensive action would have to be
cleared with the U.S.

    Saddam knows that any attack on Israel will bring a
crushing response, whether by Israeli or U.S. forces. In fact,
it can be argued that Saddam dare not attack Israel alone
because a crippling counterstrike by the Israelis would
completely undercut his pose in the Arab world as the one leader
capable of smoting Israel, even if the attack did not literally
kill him.

    But Saddam may be able to drag Israel into the conflict
without risking military retaliation. Well-placed sources say
Iraqi agents in Jordan are preparing to destabilize King
Hussein's regime, which could prompt intervention by Israel and
Syria while diverting the world's attention. Among the targets
already identified: U.S. Ambassador Roger Harrison. Says an
Israeli military official: "Creating havoc in Jordan would serve
Saddam Hussein's interests well. It might even bring Israel,
Syria and even the Saudis to send troops to the Jordanian
border."

    As billions of dollars in U.S. weapons pour into Arab
arsenals and Israel's role as a strategic ally appears
diminished, many in Shamir's government are beginning to suspect
that the new order emerging in the Middle East may not be
entirely to their liking, even if Saddam is eliminated.
Hard-liners are especially concerned that a triumphant U.S. may
decide to compensate its Arab allies by pressuring Israel into
peace talks with the Palestinians.

    Those anxieties are well founded. If American blood is shed
in a war against Israel's most dangerous foe -- albeit for
distinct U.S. interests -- Israel will have a difficult time
explaining its own reluctance to make political sacrifices that
could promote peace in the region.


____________________________________________________________
                       ISRAEL        IRAQ

Total armed forces     170,000   1,000,000 Reserves
    430,000     850,000 Tanks                    3,800
5,500 Artillery                1,300       3,500 Aircraft
              635         510 Attack helicopters          77
       160